# Final predictions for the 2022 US midterm elections

**OVERALL:**

**Dem Senate control**-- Unclear but slight no (46% chance)**Dem House control**-- Somewhat leaning no (27% chance)

**BALANCE OF POWER:**

**D House + D Senate:**Somewhat leaning no (21% chance)**R House + D Senate:**Somewhat leaning no (24% chance)**D House + R Senate:**Likely no (6% chance)**R House + R Senate:**Unclear but slight no (47% chance)

**MAPS:**

*Senate*

*Governor*

**DISTRIBUTIONS:**

**D Senate Seats 80% CI:**46 - 54 seats**Median House outcome:**209 D House seats, 226 R House seats*(Rs have 17 seat majority)***D House Seats 80% CI:**190 - 227**R House Seats 80% CI:**208 - 245

**D SENATE SCENARIOS:**

**34%**Democrats gain one or more Senate seats**12%**there is net zero change of seats**13%**Republicans gain net one seat**13%**Republicans gain net two seats**28%**Republicans gain net three or more seats

**D HOUSE SCENARIOS:**

**23%**Democrats net gain 0 or more house seats**5%**Democrats net lose house seats but keep majority**10%**Republicans have majority by <5 seats**25%**Republicans have majority by 5-15 seats**21%**Republicans have majority by 16-25 seats**16%**Republicans have majority by >25 seats

**GENERIC BALLOT ESTIMATE: R+0.7**

**SENATE SEAT DISTRIBUTION:**

- 46 or fewer GOP Senate seats: 11%
- 47 GOP seats: 6%
- 48 GOP seats: 8%
- 49 GOP seats: 10%
- 50 GOP seats: 12%
- 51 GOP seats: 13%
- 52 GOP seats: 13%
- 53 GOP seats: 11%
- 54 GOP seats: 8%
- 55 GOP seats: 5%
- 56 or more GOP seats: 4%

**Expected Senate D win chance in each state:**

**D wins FL Senate?**-- Highly likely no (2% chance)**D wins IA Senate?**-- Highly likely no (3% chance)**D wins OH Senate?**-- Likely no (11% chance)**D wins NC Senate?**-- Likely no (16% chance)**D wins WI Senate?**-- Likely no (18% chance)**D wins PA Senate?**-- Somewhat leaning no (39% chance)**D wins NV Senate?**-- Unclear but slight no (42% chance)**D wins GA Senate?**-- Unclear but slight no (44% chance) (note: will likely go into runoff)**D wins AZ Senate?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (58% chance)**D wins NH Senate?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (70% chance)**D wins CO Senate?**-- Likely yes (90% chance)**D wins WA Senate?**-- Likely yes (93% chance)

**Expected Senate margin in each state:**

**IA: R+11.8**(80% CI: R+20 to R+3.5)**FL: R+11.5**(80% CI: R+18.8 to R+4.4)**OH: R+6.3**(80% CI: R+13 to D+0.5)**NC: R+4.8**(80% CI: R+11.1 to D+1.4)**WI: R+4.7**(80% CI: R+11.5 to D+2)**PA: R+1.6**(80% CI: R+9.9 to D+6.7)**NV: R+1.5**(80% CI: R+11.5 to D+8.5)**GA: R+0.9**(80% CI: R+9.3 to D+7.6)**AZ: D+1.2**(80% CI: R+6.3 to D+8.6)**NH: D+4.1**(80% CI: R+5.7 to D+13.7)**CO: D+9.2**(80% CI: D+0.1 to D+18.3)**WA: D+12.2**(80% CI: D+1.9 to D+22.5)

**Who wins House?***D win odds for my model's 30 most competitive House races*

**D wins CO-8?**-- Somewhat leaning no (26% chance)**D wins NM-2?**-- Somewhat leaning no (31% chance)**D wins PA-7?**-- Somewhat leaning no (33% chance)**D wins NC-13?**-- Somewhat leaning no (34% chance)**D wins NE-2?**-- Somewhat leaning no (35% chance)**D wins IA-3?**-- Somewhat leaning no (35% chance)**D wins OH-13?**-- Somewhat leaning no (36% chance)**D wins VA-2?**-- Somewhat leaning no (39% chance)**D wins OH-1?**-- Unclear but slight no (42% chance)**D wins NV-3?**-- Unclear but slight no (44% chance)**D wins NY-19?**-- Unclear but slight no (45% chance)**D wins OR-5?**-- Unclear but slight no (49% chance)**D wins NY-22?**-- Unclear but slight yes (50% chance)**D wins PA-17?**-- Unclear but slight yes (51% chance)**D wins IL-17?**-- Unclear but slight yes (52% chance)**D wins CA-27?**-- Unclear but slight yes (52% chance)**D wins MI-7?**-- Unclear but slight yes (54% chance)**D wins CA-22?**-- Unclear but slight yes (55% chance)**D wins CT-5?**-- Unclear but slight yes (56% chance)**D wins RI-2?**-- Unclear but slight yes (56% chance)**D wins PA-8?**-- Unclear but slight yes (58% chance)**D wins CA-13?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (60% chance)**D wins NY-3?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (61% chance)**D wins NV-1?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (63% chance)**D wins NV-4?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (68% chance)**D wins WA-8?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (69% chance)**D wins ME-2?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (70% chance)**D wins OH-9?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (71% chance)**D wins IN-1?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (71% chance)**D wins TX-34?**-- Somewhat leaning yes (73% chance)

**House Race Controversies***D win odds for the 30 House races I rate most differently than 538*

**TX-15**-- My odds 13%, 538 odds 54%**NE-2**-- My odds 35%, 538 odds 8%**OH-1**-- My odds 42%, 538 odds 16%**TX-34**-- My odds 73%, 538 odds 48%**IL-6**-- My odds 92%, 538 odds 67%**AK-1**-- My odds 74%, 538 odds 50%**MI-3**-- My odds 80%, 538 odds 59%**NC-1**-- My odds 76%, 538 odds 96%**AZ-2**-- My odds 14%, 538 odds 34%**IN-1**-- My odds 72%, 538 odds 91%**OH-13**-- My odds 37%, 538 odds 19%**NV-3**-- My odds 44%, 538 odds 62%**CO-8**-- My odds 26%, 538 odds 9%**CA-22**-- My odds 56%, 538 odds 39%**AZ-1**-- My odds 21%, 538 odds 5%**CA-27**-- My odds 53%, 538 odds 37%**NY-17**-- My odds 86%, 538 odds 70%**MD-6**-- My odds 87%, 538 odds 72%**NV-4**-- My odds 69%, 538 odds 83%**NY-22**-- My odds 50%, 538 odds 36%**IL-14**-- My odds 91%, 538 odds 78%**NY-19**-- My odds 46%, 538 odds 58%**NC-13**-- My odds 35%, 538 odds 23%**NJ-3**-- My odds 96%, 538 odds 85%**CA-47**-- My odds 90%, 538 odds 80%**MI-7**-- My odds 55%, 538 odds 65%**PA-7**-- My odds 34%, 538 odds 44%**NV-1**-- My odds 63%, 538 odds 53%**IL-17**-- My odds 52%, 538 odds 62%**NY-4**-- My odds 87%, 538 odds 78%

**Governor Outcomes**

**AK**-- D wins?: Almost certainly no (1% chance) ---- Margin: R+9.9 (80% CI: R+14 to R+5.9)**FL**-- D wins?: Highly likely no (3% chance) ---- Margin: R+14.5 (80% CI: R+24.8 to R+4.2)**OK**-- D wins?: Highly likely no (4% chance) ---- Margin: R+9.9 (80% CI: R+17.6 to R+2.3)**TX**-- D wins?: Likely no (6% chance) ---- Margin: R+12.4 (80% CI: R+22.7 to R+2.1)**GA**-- D wins?: Likely no (11% chance) ---- Margin: R+9.8 (80% CI: R+20.1 to D+0.7)**AZ**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning no (24% chance) ---- Margin: R+2.8 (80% CI: R+8 to D+2.4)**NV**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning no (29% chance) ---- Margin: R+2.6 (80% CI: R+8.6 to D+3.4)**WI**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning no (36% chance) ---- Margin: R+2.1 (80% CI: R+9.7 to D+5.6)**KS**-- D wins?: Unclear but slight yes (51% chance) ---- Margin: D+0.3 (80% CI: R+10.1 to D+10.6)**OR**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning yes (67% chance) ---- Margin: D+2 (80% CI: R+3.6 to D+7.7)**NM**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning yes (75% chance) ---- Margin: D+5.5 (80% CI: R+4.9 to D+15.9)**MI**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning yes (76% chance) ---- Margin: D+5.9 (80% CI: R+4.4 to D+16.2)**ME**-- D wins?: Somewhat leaning yes (79% chance) ---- Margin: D+6.6 (80% CI: R+3.6 to D+16.9)**MN**-- D wins?: Likely yes (89% chance) ---- Margin: D+8.6 (80% CI: R+0.3 to D+17.6)**NY**-- D wins?: Likely yes (89% chance) ---- Margin: D+8.5 (80% CI: R+0.2 to D+17.1)**PA**-- D wins?: Likely yes (92% chance) ---- Margin: D+9.2 (80% CI: D+0.9 to D+17.5)**CT**-- D wins?: Highly likely yes (96% chance) ---- Margin: D+15 (80% CI: D+4.6 to D+25.3)**RI**-- D wins?: Highly likely yes (97% chance) ---- Margin: D+15.9 (80% CI: D+5.6 to D+26.3)

**Methods**

- My model mainly (but not entirely) relies on aggregating models from FiveThirtyEight, @iabvek, Split Ticket, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Cory McCartan. The Senate model also pulls from PredictIt and Polymarket. Combining models is likely more accurate than an individual model.
- I think compared to FiveThirtyEight, this model relies much more on fundamentals (mainly past vote margin + demographic trends + incumbency + subjective assessments of candidate quality) and less on polling.
- I have skin in the game - I have bet over $2000 on these models.
- I mainly made this model to practice forecasting skills, as I am excited to make difficult forecasts in an area that gives fast feedback.
- Depending on how well this model does on election day, I may write more detail.

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Here's a spreadsheet that compares the outputs of the various models.